What won’t happen in 2016… A glass half empty look at the property year ahead.

It’s that time of year when the property industry habitually gather together, tail on the donkey like, to make their predictions for house prices in the coming year. These predictions are inevitably and consistently wrong.

So rather than mess around with the crystal ball of price guestimates, here’s our expert take on what will definitely, absolutely not happen in 2016.

  1. An interest rate rise will not be avoided.
  2. However, across the UK, house price rises will still not subside.
  3. New housing will not reach the 240,000 units so sorely required.
  4. Prime Central London sales volumes will not recover. Nor will its prices.
  5. Listed traditional estate agency share prices will not end the year higher than their 2015 close.
  6. OnTheMarket.com will not overtake Zoopla as the ‘number two’ property portal.
  7. Unusually, there will be no change of Housing Minister. (Looks like your job is safe Brandon).
  8. Despite the Chancellor’s forthcoming SDLT 3% hike on second homes and buy-to-let, overall Government revenues from the tax will be no higher than in 2015.
  9. Homes sold under Right to Buy will not be replaced ‘one for one’ by local authorities and housing associations.
  10. Bad landlords will not be rounded upon, despite the recent rhetoric from Government. Fewer than 5 ‘rogue’ landlords per week will actually be convicted for condition related housing offences by local authorities.

So confident is our CEO of his expertise in presupposing such things that he’s wagered £100 for every one on the list that he gets wrong. The proceeds going to Centrepoint, the charity.

It’s pretty unusual for an estate agent to put his money where his mouth is, don’t you think?

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