A few months has passed since Britain made the decision to leave the EU and as of yet, there has still been no meaningful impact on the UK property market, other than a seasonal 1% drop in property values.
With no concrete impact likely to surface for quite some time, we’ve asked over 1000 UK homeowners just what they thought was going to happen as a result of the Brexit vote.
House Price Change
eMoov asked in light of the EUa vote, what the change in UK houses prices would be over the next 12 months. 70% of those asked believed there would be a change in house prices as a result of the Brexit vote, with 54% of those believing that house prices would maintain the upward trend and continue to increase.
eMoov then asked what the change in house price values would be over the next five years. 78% of those asked believed the Leave vote would impact property values, with 64% of those believing it would, again, see an increase in the price of UK property.
eMoov then asked if the Brexit vote would result in less demand for housing due to lower immigration levels. 61% of those asked didn’t think that lower immigration levels would help quell the overwhelming demand for UK property.
However, when focusing on the capital this figure shifts to a majority of 53% believing that lower immigration will result in a reduction in UK property demand.
eMoov also asked respondents, what they thought would happen to UK interest rates as a result of the Brexit vote?
78% of those asked believed there would be an impact one way or another, with 63% of those people thinking rates would drop even further, despite the UK already enjoying a cut to 0.25% just weeks prior to eMoov’s poll.
The UK government’s promise and performance to build more houses has been woefully inadequate and with no sight of that changing it’s no surprise that 53% of people asked believed that leaving the EU would have a negative impact on house building in the UK, due to the lower number of European tradespeople.
Buying in Europe
eMoov then asked if the Leave vote would impact the purchase process of those looking to buy a holiday home within remaining EU member states. 62% of those asked believed that it would now be harder for UK nationals to purchase a property in mainland Europe.
eMoov also asked if the Leave vote had changed the minds of those selling their property. Despite the abundance of Brexit doomsday predictions, 78% of those weren’t swayed by the vote and it had no impact on their decision to sell.
Nearly a quarter (23%) of those asked stated that when voting in the referendum their decision was swayed by selling a property, with over half of those (59%) voting to remain because they were involved in a sale.
eMoov also asked if the Leave vote will result in higher UK unemployment. Of those asked, 56% believed that the decision to leave the EU would not result in higher unemployment levels across the UK.
Finally, eMoov asked both Leave and Remain voters if they would vote differently now.
Of those that voted to leave, just 21% would have changed their mind if given a second change, with 15% of Remain voters also having a change of heart.
There is still little evidence to show any detrimental impact on the UK property market, despite a number of media publications looking to scare the British public into thinking otherwise.
The UK market is still looking impenetrably strong, with just a minor seasonal drop in values being the only chink in its armour. This research shows that the troops on the ground, British home sellers and buyers, are seeing the same when it comes to selling and buying and so far there is little if anything to worry about.
Yes, any lasting damage will take time to show conclusively but had there been any as a result of the Brexit vote, the shockwaves would have already impacted on the ground level and it appears that this just isn’t the case.Russell Quirk