The latest research from leading online estate agent Emoov.co.uk highlights the potential task faced by the next generation of aspirational buyers, if the government fails to provide more affordable housing to address the current stock shortage, and if prices continue to grow at the same pace as the last two decades. Emoov analysed data from the Land Registry over the last two decades to calculate the percentage increases in property values across England and Wales. The same increase was then applied to today’s average property values across each region to anticipate what property will cost in 10 and 20 years’ time if it continues to increase at the same rate.
The Next 10 Years
In the next decade, if prices across England were to increase by 29% as they have done since 2007, it would bring average house price up to £301,864. London could jump to a staggering £866,719 if property values continue to increase at the same pace as they have in the last 10 years (80%), making it all but impossible for aspirational buyers to get on the capital’s property ladder.
The South East’s average property cost today is £313,334 but would rise to £445,159 in 10 years as a result of a further 42% increase, while the East of England follows with prices up 43% in the last 10 years, which would see the average property value climb to £397,335 in the next decade. There are certain regions in England and Wales that would maintain affordable price tags in 2027. Both Wales and the North West could increase at a gradual pace and based on the current market trends, the average property in 10 years could cost £154,072 and £158,131, respectively. Both the East and West Midlands would also remain within reach with the average price sat around the £200,000 mark (E: £205,870 & W: £183,883).
The Next 20 Years
In the last 20 years, the average house price in England has increased by 320%. Although it is unlikely that property prices will continue at this rate, a further 320% increase in the value of property across England would push the average property value to the exuberant height of £983,826. The potential percentage increases over the next two decades are even more alarming in certain regions and would put property completely out of reach for those looking to buy. In London, if the market continues to inflate at such a dangerous rate, the average property cost would climb by a further 480%, putting the average house price at an eye-watering £2,792,783.
The South East could climb to £1,422,708 over two decades if prices increased by another 354%, trailed by the East of England where the average house price would hit £1,311,380 after climbing 371%. As before, the markets in Wales and the North West would still grow gradually remaining just about affordable for those looking to get on the ladder in 20 years, with the average property price in Wales hitting £494,731, while the North West could jump to £533,010.
The West Midlands would also remain under the £600,000 mark (£560,037), but the East Midlands would see prices tip beyond this boundary to a demonic £666,178. Despite seeing prices fall in the last decade, the North East market has climbed in the last 20 years. If it were again to stabilise over the coming 20 years, homeowner would see prices once again on the up, although at just £380,753, it is by far the most affordable area of England and Wales for future homeowners.
Despite the usual industry speculation it’s not likely that we’ll see a bursting of the house price bubble any time soon, but perhaps a slight deflation temporarily. Should this be the case, this research highlights the near impossible task faced by the next generation of aspirational buyers and acts as a warning to the government should they fail to address the current lack of property available, which is seeing prices once again reach dangerously inflated levels. The property boom in several regions of England has made it increasingly more expensive to get on the ladder, and the figures anticipating the next two decades only further attest to the importance of investing in a home as soon as possible if the trend in increasing property values is to persist. It is stomach churning to think that should prices continue the way they are, there will be just one real area of property affordability left across England and Wales in 20 years’ time, with the average house price in England approaching the £1m mark and three regions tipping beyond this. Russell Quirk