At Emoov we pride ourselves on our expertise within the property market, whether that’s our local knowledge of your area and property’s value, our unrivalled customer service, achieving the best possible price for your property sale and even our expert commentary on the latest property news and industry events in the media.
Our founder and CEO, Russell Quirk, is always on hand where the latter is concerned and regularly provides comment on the news, as well as shaking up his crystal ball to provide predictions for how the market will perform in the year ahead.
After a turbulent and unpredictable year for the UK property market, we thought we would look back to this time last year and see how Russell’s predictions compared with the current market climate.
Last year we asked Russell what he thought house price across the UK would increase by in 2017. Other credible sources in the industry such as the RICS and both Nationwide and Halifax played it fairly safe with a ballpark 1-4% increase.
The ‘BBC’s favourite property expert’ Henry Pryor went the other way and predicted an Armageddon-like -4%, quoted as saying “everything points to things going very bad from here” – a swing and a miss from Henry.
But Russell was more decisive and hung his hat firmly on a 4% increase nationwide, but was he right?
Well, looking at the concrete data based on sales completions from the Land Registry, the average UK house price in December 2016 was £215,496. The Land Registry releases data on a two-month lag but the latest numbers for October, released this week, place the current UK average at £223,807, a 3.86% increase. So, it looks like Russell was pretty much on the money compared to the rest.
But nobody is perfect and along with wider industry expectations, Russell thought the London market would perform far worse than it has, with a -4% drop predicted this time last year. Although London has taken the brunt of the current market conditions due to the high cost of property and has seen the worst price growth of all UK regions, the capital still defied expectations to see a marginal 1.79% increase since last December.
Likewise, the capital’s upper echelons were also predicted to see prices plummet, but prime central London has also seen a slight revival in parts. Hammersmith and Fulham has seen a 3.63% increase, while Islington is also up 1.44%.
However, there’s no boroughs to encompass the image of the prime central London market quite as much as Kensington and Chelsea and Russell predicted that the capital’s most prestigious homeowners would see a 10% fall in property prices – a bold statement at the time.
But a year down the line and it doesn’t look so bold, with prices in the borough down 8.04%!
Russell also predicted that interest rates would return to their previous level of 0.5% and finally, predicted that the Government would continue in their failure to deliver a meaningful number of homes, predicting the construction of 150 new builds. While the Government have surpassed expectation ever so slightly, they have still only managed 187,000 new dwellings, with speculation around how many of these are refurbs.
So, it looks as if our resident property expert was pretty accurate with his predictions and he will be dusting off the crystal ball to deliver the same for the year ahead before Christmas, although these won’t include the lottery numbers – sorry.