Two years on from Brexit who are the UK’s property market winners and losers?

Aug 20, 2018

The latest UK HPI release of property price data for June provided the first concrete look how the UK market has performed on the two-year anniversary of our decision to leave the EU.

With the headlines showing house price growth is at a five year low across the UK, we crunched the numbers to see where has suffered and where has shrugged off the wider market slowdown to enjoy strong price growth since the referendum.

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The UK

7.3%

UK Price Growth

7.3%

England & Scotland

7.1%

Wales

7.7%

Northern Ireland

Regionally, the West and East Midlands are ahead of the rest with price growth hitting double-digit figures in the last year, 10.9% and 10.3% respectively. The North East has suffered the most with prices increasing by just 0.3% in the last two years.

  • West Midlands 10.9%
  • East Midlands 10.3%
  • East of England 9.5%
  • South West 8.1%
  • North West 7.8%
  • Yorkshire and the Humber 6.9%
  • South East 6.5%
  • Outer London 4.1%
  • London 1.8%
  • Inner London 1.2%
  • North East 0.3%

The high cost of living in the capital has also taken its toll with London the second-worst performer at 1.8%. This is largely due to central London and when split, Inner London price growth falls further to 1.2% while Outer London picks up the pace at 4.1%.

The Best

Across the UK it’s the Orkney and Shetland Islands that have enjoyed the largest growth since Brexit, up a huge 36.1% in the Orkney’s and 19.9% in the Shetlands.

England compiles the rest of the top 10 largest increases with Thanet (18.8%), Harborough (18.4%), Kettering (18.4%), Tendring (17.8%), Maldon (17.7%), Sandwell (17.2%), Blaby (17.2%) and North Norfolk (17.0%).

The Worst

The City of London has been by far the worst area of the UK for property price growth with a drop of -21.9%, but with an average house price of over £700,000, homeowners aren’t completely out of pocket. The City of Aberdeen is the second worst and only other area to see a double-digit drop at -12.3%.

With an average house price of £1.15m, Kensington and Chelsea has also seen a notable drop at -7.4%, with the Western Isles (-6.2%), the City of Westminster (-6.0%), Three Rivers (-5.7%), wider Aberdeenshire (-5.4%), Hammersmith and Fulham (-4.4%), Wandsworth (-2.9%) and Southwark (-2.9%) all seeing some of the largest declines in price growth.

London

As already mentioned, it’s London more prestigious boroughs that have seen the largest declines, with the City of London, Kensington and Chelsea, City of Westminster, Hammersmith and Fulham and Wandsworth joined by Southwark (-2.9%), Richmond (-1.7%), Barnet (-1.6%), Lewisham (-0.9%) and Haringey (-0.6%).

However, 70% of London boroughs have seen property prices increase since Brexit, with Camden (14.5%), Barking and Dagenham (11.8%), Islington (11.4%) and Havering (10.9%) all seeing double-digit price growth.

Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Hackney, Bexley, Croydon and Enfield have also seen some of the strongest growth.

England

Again, as previously mentioned, Thanet, Harborough and Kettering have seen some of the largest increases of all English districts, while outside of London Three Rivers, South Bucks (-2.3%) and Redcar and Cleveland (-1.4%) have seen some of the biggest decreases.

County Level

Looking at the wider county level, Leicestershire (14.5%) tops the table while County Durham is the lowest, behind only London, at 2.5%.

Scotland

Behind the Orkney and Shetland Islands, Scotland’s major cities lead the way with Edinburgh (16.1%) and Glasgow (14.1%) enjoying the largest growth. The City of Aberdeen, Western Isles and Aberdeenshire are the only areas of Scotland to have seen a decline in house prices since Brexit.

Wales

No region of Wales has seen a fall in house prices since Brexit with Newport (15.5%), Monmouthshire (12.3%) and Torfaen (11.5%) seeing the largest uplift. While still a positive movement, Anglesey (2.1%) has seen the smallest increase.

brexit, banner brexit, brexit situation, property market

There is no doubt that in the wake of the EU referendum political and economic uncertainty, along with a shambolic exit plan, have seen UK property prices as a whole slow considerably.

However, while the headlines may paint a picture of doom and gloom, it’s interesting to see which areas of the UK are actually driving this slowdown and which have ignored the market naysayers to record extremely positive price growth trends.

London is a prime example, whereby price growth has recorded its biggest fall since 2009 but in reality, 70% of London boroughs have seen prices increase since the vote, some by huge margins. Those that have seen a decline and are driving the wider negative price trends are for the large part, the million pound plus market.

Across the UK there are a wealth of areas enjoying strong growth, primarily as a result of a business as usual attitude and a realistic asking to sold price expectation.

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